Improving markets for 2017
While 2016 appears to have seen limited growth in global cement consumption, improved fundamentals and returns are in store for 2017 as emerging markets are expected to nearly double their YoY growth rate. By John Fraser-Andrews, HSBC Global Research.
Figure 1: emerging market (ex-China) volume growth to outstrip new capacity in 2017-2018E
Source: International Cement Review, company data, HSBC estimates
Figure 2: country cumulative (2010-2015) cement price variation less cost inflation (PPI)
Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters Datastream
The year 2016 looks set to mark another year of anaemic growth in cement consumption, with the forecast rise in China (comprising just over 70 per cent of global consumption) barely surpassing the three per cent mark, salvaging a 2.7 per cent global increase.
Excluding China, HSBC forecasts a 1.7 per cent rise in global consumption, with stagnant demand in emerging markets (EM) ex-India and eastern Europe, which have been held back by commodity and oil-exporting countries suffering recession, and investment slumps in Latin America (Brazil and Chile), Saudi Arabia and Malaysia (see Table 1).
