The US economy is strong. While PCA never bought into a recession scenario, its Fall Forecast (early October 2023) expected a modest economic growth slowdown. Data released following the forecast has been consistently stronger than expected. As a result, our view of US economic performance for 2024 has changed significantly. While our Spring Forecast has yet to be released, as of this writing, this economic strength will be reflected in the new forecast. By Ed Sullivan, PCA, USA.
The US economy was expected to endure a slowdown during the first half of 2024. That slowdown was based on the unfolding of three key developments:
1. the lagged adverse impacts of monetary policy interest rate hikes
2. the drawdown of excess consumer savings generated during COVID and supplemented by COVID relief spending
3. the tightening in the access to credit for consumers and business.
