Indonesia October sales support full-year forecast

Indonesian consumption figures in October 2015 showed a huge sales volume gain over the same month of the previous year, but year-to-date figures are just slightly higher due to poor sales during the earlier months of this year.

Domestic demand rose by 10.2 per cent YoY in October 2015 to 6.348Mt. Meanwhile, cement exports were 57,000t (+694.1 per cent) and clinker exports doubled to 56,000t. Total sales (domestic plus exports) during the month were 6.421Mt – translating to a rise of 12.1 per cent YoY.

In the first 10 months of the year, consumption rose by 0.4 per cent to 48.93Mt. Cement and clinker exports each increased to 472,000t and clinker, up 123.6 and 850.9 per cent, YoY. Total cumulative sales during the Jan-October 2015 period were up 1.7 per cent YoY to 49.832Mt.

Exports (with a year-to-date increase of +251.2 per cent to 899,000t) are offsetting the relatively slow domestic sales.

Semen Indonesia reported that its domestic sales were also positive again in October, but that year-to-date growth is still negative. However, the state-owned cement producer's  exports are up considerably.

Previous industry forecasts of flat or slightly higher demand for 2015 appear to be confirmed by the October 2015 figures, unless there is a continued upswing in the final two months of the year.