CEMBUREAU 4Q15 Economic Report: modest growth across EU, some clouds on horizon

CEMBUREAU's Quarterly Economic Report for 4Q15, published yesterday, shows that no EU countries experienced recession in 2015. However, the latest quarterly data revealed that economic growth did not gain momentum in 4Q15 on a quarterly basis, with very modest growth rates recorded in all major EU economies, ie 0.3 per cent in the EU28 and Germany, 0.2 per cent in France and 0.1 per cent in Italy.

The European cement association warns that there are growing fears of a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, risks of continuing deflation despite unprecedented European Central Bank (ECB) action and several factors of uncertainty that have cast a shadow on growth prospects for 2016. Supportive external factors (oil prices, ECB’s Quantitative Easing, EUR devaluation) have yet to boost economic growth and investment as expected,

The Quarterly Report also shows that the latest leading indicators for the construction sector continued to show mixed signs and diverging developments in major euro area economies, but as a whole the sector showed levels of activity that are still rather low – although recovery has been in place in many Member States since 2H13.

Construction investment data continued to show a clear disconnection between construction and macroeconomic cycles in 4Q15, the latter recovering at a much faster speed than the construction sector which is lagging behind despite economic recovery.

In the final quarter of last year, the report reveals that cement manufacturing indices seemed to have reversed the trend observed over the past quarters having recorded sharp increases in all the countries observed, albeit still remaining around very low levels in historical terms.

To download the latest Quarterly Economic Report, click here.