Natural gas price to rise but thermal coal to fall in 2017
Global oil production fell in 2Q16 as the decline in no-OPEC fields is no longer offset by OPEC growth but is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2017, particularly has there has been no double-digit growth in new investments. Demand in 2017 is forecast to grow by 1.2mbd, resulting in a Brent price of US$61/bbl, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML).
Natural gas prices fell in 2016 to US$2.30/mBtu on the back of muted demand and falling US output. However, going forward, BoAML expects the supply-demand balance to be tightening and prices to rise to US$3.50/mBtu in 2017.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to rise further in 2H16 as Asian imports but as demand drops in 2017, prices are set to fall. This has led analysts to revise the 2H16 Newcastle coal price to US$59/t in 2016, decreasing further to US$55m/t the year after.
