PCA forecasts moderate cement consumption and GDP growth to 2021

The US Portland Cement Association (PCA) has published its annual Fall Forecast in which it predicts moderate growth for cement demand through 2019 and into 2020. PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption will expand by 2.4 per cent in 2019, followed by a 1.7 and 1.4 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

"Public construction continues to receive the benefit of the 2018 federal budget that allowed for $20 billion in spending on roads, bridges, water, and rail projects over 2018 and 2019," said Ed Sullivan, PCA’s senior vice president and chief economist. "These gains come in the context of increased challenges at the state level to manage deficits as entitlement spending growth continues at a strong pace."

The labour market continues to fuel the US economy and on a monthly basis has generated 161,000 net new jobs since the start of the year. Coupled with mild inflation rates and a continued increase of house prices, it expects it will take some time before the economy declines significantly. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 per cent this year, with this rate slowing to 2.1 and 1.7 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

"The economy is now the longest economic expansion post-World War II history. Some of the pent-up demand zip that invigorates the initial stages of economic recovery are long past. As such, the economy is now more vulnerable to economic shocks," said Mr Sullivan. "While PCA does not believe data revealed by the economy suggests a recession is near, it does point to a gradually weakening economy."