The World Economic Forum (WEF) has released its first Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2022 report. It states that cement demand is forecast to rise 46 per cent by 2050 and suggests that US$185bn will have to be invested in CO2 handling infrastructure and clean hydrogen production to enable low-emission cement plants.
To reach the 2030 emissions intensity target, the WEF estimates that the cement sector needs to reduce its carbon emissions by 24 per cent from today’s level. Furthermore, it will need to reduce its carbon emissions by 95 per cent to reach net zero in 2050. The adoption of carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) by the cement sector is forecast to give a 50-85 per cent production cost increase, with commercial installations beginning by 2030. The industry will require US$500bn to implement CCUS technologies by 2050, ie US$16bn annually on top of usual business investments. Access to green bonds through adequate taxonomy and ample public financing support is expected to be required.
Carbon storage infrastructure will need to handle 1370Mta of CO2, according to the WEF report. Low-emission cement is expected to reach the market with a green premium above 50 per cent, which is estimated to lead to a 1-3 per cent increase in housing prices.
Approximately, US$60-110/tCO2e carbon pricing is required to level the competitive landscape, suggests WEF.
Five priorities are emphasised for the cement sector by the WEF report:
1. Implement efficiency levers to maximise emission reduction in existing processes and foster concrete recycling
2. Boost the number of carbon capture projects to accelerate the learning curve, drive costs down and bring forward the technology’s commercial readiness
3. Develop CO2 transport and storage infrastructure for low-emission cement production
4. Multiply demand signals for low-emission cement to incentivise producers and investors to direct capital towards low-emission assets
5. Develop policies to support the four priorities above and strengthen the business case for low-emission cement production.
