The rate at which China reduces its CO2 emissions will have a huge impact on whether the world achieves Net Zero before the worst effects of climate change. This week's announcement that CO2 reduction targets from the cement sector will be cut in China by around 13Mt, in the next year, is a definite signal to the world that China is beginning its shift to a low-carbon economy. Reaching peak carbon output before 2030 will keep the country with the largest cement production on course for carbon neutrality in 2060. But analysts do not see China relinquishing its industrial demand for coal and this could knock the world’s decarbonisation plans off track.

Today, China's fuel mix for cement is almost 97 per cent coal-based with biomass and solid waste as the only other minor components, according to RMI and the China Cement Association (CCA). However, analysts Carbon Brief say that China has been 'doubling down' on its coal and gas demand since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country has been quick to turn its attention to the renewables sector for energy while building up its domestic production capacity for fossil fuel.

Coal remains a key energy source

Recent tracking by Carbon Brief suggests that China will increase its emissions in the short term but is likely to "significantly overachieve the targets it promised internationally for 2030, with emissions peaking by 2025." While this suggests that China is on a good path by the end of the century, Carbon Brief claims that "If all countries adopted an equivalent level of ambition, we would expect warming to reach 3°C."

This doubles the 1.5°C climate warming target for the century from the Paris Agreement of 2015. In this scenario, the worst effects of climate change may not be avoided. "China’s total CO₂ emissions exceeded those of the advanced economies combined in 2020, and in 2023 they were 15 per cent higher," claims the International Energy Agency (IEA). In 2023, China accounted for 35 per cent of global CO₂ emissions, added the IEA.

The risk is that China uses its remaining fossil fuel capacity to meet any increasing electricity demand in the future. This would delay the CO₂ peaking year and would start to increase CO₂ emissions again. Meanwhile, renewable fuels are expected to rise in China to 25 per cent of the country’s energy consumption by 2030, as wind and solar increase capacity to 1200GW. But renewable energy on its own will not be enough to meet China’s energy demands.

China and its Net Zero roadmap

RMI and the CCA released a report Toward Net Zero: Decarbonisation Roadmap for China’s Cement Industry in 2022. The report states that China passed its maximum clinker production between 2020-24, with clinker output expected to fall to 560Mta and cement production to 750Mt by 2050. The drop in clinker and cement production is underpinned by a decline in cement demand and is expected to contribute positively to the country's move toward net zero. In addition, the increased use of solid waste fuels, energy efficiency, low-carbon cement and carbon capture technologies are also expected to support the planned reduction in CO₂ emissions. 

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is expected to rise from five per cent deployment in 2030 to 10 per cent in 2040, rising to 30 per cent in 2050 and 90 per cent in 2060. China is relying on CCUS to catch a significant amount of its CO₂ emissions by the second half of this century. 

Fuel substitution will also play a major part in reducing China’s CO₂ emissions in the cement sector. By 2060, the roadmap indicates that waste materials will be the largest component in the fuel mix accounting for more than 40 per cent, while coal will remain the second largest component at over 25 per cent, with electrification, hydrogen and biomass equally accounting for the remainder.

More solutions for dealing with China's CO₂ emissions form cement production may yet emerge. At Cemtech Asia in Jakarta last week, Chen Guoqing, VP of China Building Materials Federation, shared developments on the '6-Zero' initiative, which aims to deliver the ultimate carbon neutral cement factory with zero carbon emissions, zero purchased electricity, zero fossil energy, zero primary resources, zero waste emissions and zero staff.

ETS would incentivise low-carbon cement

While China has ambitions to shift to a reduced fossil fuel-consuming country, it will not eliminate coal usage by 2060. Its reliance on coal in the cement sector will encourage its need to develop CCUS solutions. The government’s development of the carbon capture trading market in China should be an even greater incentive. Ian Riley, CEO of the World Cement Association, says it is likely that China will need an emissions trading scheme, like CBAM in Europe, to encourage investment in green cement and CCUS. Although China’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) was launched in 2021, it was initially aimed at power plants. But this year, discussions about cement and aluminium sectors’ inclusion look more of a priority.

Published under Cement News