Iranian cement shrinks in September

Iranian domestic cement sales contracted 11.8 per cent YoY to 5.520Mt in September, down from 6.260Mt a year earlier, according to the Iranian cement association. Producers manufactured 6.524Mt of cement and 6.279Mt of clinker, decreases of 1.9 per cent YoY and 5.9 per cent YoY respectively, when compared with September 2023.

A total of 931,760t of cement and clinker were exported in September, a decrease of 9.5 per cent YoY, dragged down by lower clinker exports, which shrank 37.4 per cent YoY to 369,426t. Meanwhile, cement exports rose 27.8 per cent YoY to 562,334t.

January-September 2024
In the year to September, cement consumption in Iran slipped 1.8 per cent to 47.560Mt, down from 48.410Mt in the same period of 2023.

Cement production totalled 47.0Mt, down 7.6 per cent YoY from 50.880Mt in January-September 2023. Clinker production was 45.952Mt, down 16 per cent YoY from 54.720Mt. 

Cement and clinker exports amounted to 9.574Mt in the January to September period, down 6.7 per cent YoY from 10.258Mt in the same period of 2023. Cement exports increased to 4.309Mt over the period, up 22.2 per cent YoY from 3.527Mt, while clinker exports were down 21.8 per cent YoY to 5.265Mt from 6.731Mt.

Outlook
The outlook for Iranian cement for the remainder of 2024 is downbeat. Domestic sales volumes are expected to continue to contract. Economic difficulties including double-digit inflation and tight credit conditions are weighing on demand. Added to this is the statistical effect of particularly strong sales through the second half of 2023. Production is also likely to shrink through the remainder of 2024. Energy shortage concerns and escalating tensions in the Middle East are downside risks. While the weaker rial is positive for exports, the progressive downturn in clinker exports from over 1Mt in late 2022 to just over 360,000t in September suggest strong competition for other key clinker exporting nations such as Vietnam and Indonesia.