Cement sales in Brazil (excluding imports) saw a 9.1 per cent advance to 5.921Mt in October 2024 when compared with the year-ago period, when 5.425Mt was sold in the domestic market, according to Brazil's cement association, SNIC. Per business day, this translates to 214,700tpd, up 2.5 per cent YoY. In September 2024, sales increased 10.4 per cent YOY to 5.789Mt from 5.23Mt in September 2023, or by 10.7 per cent YoY to 257,300tpd when analysed per business day.
The southeast, the country's largest market, saw sales improve by nine per cent to 2.726Mt in October 2024 from 2.501Mt in October 2023. Off-take in the northeast increased by 11.1 per cent YoY to 1.258Mt from 1.132Mt while sales in the south saw the largest expansion, up 15.9 per cent YoY, to 0.986Mt from 0.851Mt. In the central-west region dispatches edged up by 1.2 per cent YoY to 0.68Mt in October 2024 from 0.672Mt. The north, the country's smallest market, reported an 0.7 per cent uptick in sales to 0.271Mt from 0.269Mt in October 2023.
SNIC attributed the increase in cement consumption to the heating up of the labour market and real estate markets, particularly the Minha Casa, Minha Vida programme, which increased residential launches by 65.9 per cent in the first half of 2024 when compared with the 1H23.
However, the cement association also highlighted the labour shortage, which is driving up wages, putting pressure on inflation and increasing property prices. Rising interest rates, the change in housing finance rules and the government's fiscal situation are also areas of concern for SNIC. In addition, high levels of household debt contribute to the association's cautious outlook.
Exports saw a 46.7 per cent YoY drop to 8000t in October 2024 from 15,000t in October 2023. In September 2024 exports fell by 75 per cent YoY to 4000t from 16,000t in September 2023.
January-October 2024
Cement sales in Brazil in the first 10 months of 2024 picked up by 4.6 per cent YoY to 54.609Mt when compared with October 2023 when sales reached 52.21Mt.
Growth was strongest in the north where sales increased by 12.1 per cent YoY to 2.595Mt in the 10M24 from 2.315Mt. In the northeast sales advanced 6.9 per cent YoY to 11.215Mt from 10.488Mt over the same period while the southeastern market saw a 3.7 per cent increase to 25.288Mt in the 10M24 from 24.379Mt in the year-ago period. In the south, sales were up 3.4 per cent YoY to 9.099Mt from 8.803Mt in the 10M23. The central-west reported a three per cent uptick in sales to 6.412Mt in the 10M24 from 6.225Mt in the 10M23.
Exports declined by 68.5 per cent YoY to 58,000t in the January-October 2024 period when compared with 184,000t dispatched in the equivalent period of 2023.
Outlook
SNIC expects total sales of cement in Brazil to be ~64Mt by the end of 2024, well below the record of 73Mt in 2014.
“The new increases in interest rates will negatively affect family consumption and housing finance, influencing demand in the Brazilian real estate market, the main driver of cement consumption. The PAC infrastructure programs, which could help boost the activity, continue to perform below expectations,” said SNIC President, Paulo Camillo Penna.
