How "great" will Trump's impact be on US cement's green transition?

This week, Donald Trump took residency in the Oval Office and, as the new US president, signed executive orders, including the declaration that the US would withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement as he had done previously in 2017. However, Joe Biden's term as president soon put the US back on track as a leading supporter of climate action. Meanwhile, the US cement industry has embraced low-carbon cement and committed to net zero. So, will Trump’s presidency present a risk to the continued progress of environmental improvements in the US cement sector?

The Paris Agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5°C this century.  However, in 2024 the average global temperatures were recorded as being above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, according to the World Meteorological Organization. While nearly 200 countries have signed or acceded to the Paris Agreement, including China, Trump’s call to withdraw the USA from the agreement goes against the consensus. Nevertheless, he has judged it imperative to eliminate what he views as an unfair economic burden on the American people. He is committed to drill for more oil and his administration is expected to reverse many of Biden’s environmental regulations.

Critics argue that this would be a major error, and would undermine the nascent green economy, worth over US$2trn according to the UN's climate chief, Simon Stiell. “Embracing it will mean massive profits, millions of manufacturing jobs and clean air,” added Stiell.

Is Biden's green legacy under threat?
The Biden administration was committed to mitigating the worst effects of climate change. The commitments of New York, New York City, Los Angeles, Michigan and Washington as well as major US cement producers to pledge a low-carbon future and to use low-carbon cement in infrastructure projects in October 2024, was even endorsed by technology giant Amazon. Unravelling the green future that many companies operating in the US have committed to in their strategic growth plans would likely set the state against many private companies. 

Heidelberg Materials North America has pledged an emissions reduction of 25 per cent by 2030. If anything companies such as Heidelberg Materials have been emboldened to invest further in the US with its recent US$600m acquisition of Giant Cement at the end of last year.

However, Trump has rescinded Executive Order 14057 - Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and jobs through Federal Sustainability. The order defined 'Buy Clean - a green procurement programme' for agencies to support the production of clean critical building materials such as steel, cement and asphalt. Sierra Club's Senior Policy Advisor, Yong Kwon, said: "The new administration's refusal to purchase these goods [including low carbon cements] to build public roads and buildings undermines job-creating facilities and discourage engineering excellence in our manufacturing sector."

Public procurement has been a powerful endorsement of decarbonisation. “Almost 40 per cent of US cement goes into public projects; state and local governments alone spend more than US$100bn annually on road construction, using around 30Mt of cement,” said Ash Lauth, Industrious Labs’ cement strategist. “When you add in the impact of federal legislation like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which allocated US$400bn for roads and bridges and reauthorised US$270bn in Federal aid for highways, that’s a lot of cement,” he explained.

The global market for green cement is expected to surpass US$47bn by 2028, a 57 per cent increase over 2023 investment levels, Mr Lauth revealed. It is an ideal that has already struck a chord with New York state, which is vowing to reduce its emissions from concrete in state infrastructure by 30 per cent by 2028, compared to 2022 emissions data from the National Ready-Mix Concrete Association. Los Angeles is similarly committing to a 15 per cent emissions reduction target for materials in new infrastructure construction.

Department of Energy funding is a long-term commitment to carbon capture 
The Department of Energy (DoE) has continued to push forward the agenda for carbon capture in the USA, announcing US$101m in federal funding for five CO₂ capture, removal and conversion test centres for cement manufacturing and power plants as recently as 14 January 2025. The investment will include Holcim’s Hagerstown cement plant in Maryland, which will become a feasibility testing centre for carbon capture, and Cemex’s Knoxville cement plant, which will receive a share of the DoE funds to build a carbon capture, removal and conversion centre in Tennessee. 

In December 2024 the DoE also signed a cooperative agreement for the National Cement Co's Lebec cement plant to develop a 0.95Mta carbon capture project with funding of US$500m. Titan America's Roanoke cement plant in Virginia was awarded US$61.7m in April by the DoE for its calcined clay production line. Rowing back any of these initiatives will be difficult for the Trump administration if much of the money has already been committed.

Business as usual?
President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement signatories may merely be "America First" flag-waving. It is unclear how far his administration will push back against policies already enshrined in the PCA’s US Decarbonisation Roadmap, and how much he can overturn state spending on infrastructure with low-carbon cement. Reducing emissions and producing low-carbon cement has become a competitive strategy for the US cement industry, and the majority of plants have converted to Portland limestone cement.

The US cement industry is well-positioned to continue its trend towards using alternative fuels and decarbonised cement, which have become the global industry standards. Sound business cases will continue to drive business strategy. Existing commitments to major capex relating to carbon capture is the one area where progress is expected to be limited. Carbon capture already faced challenges in terms of regulatory clarity and financing, and can only get harder under a Trump administration that has rejected the one global agreement designed to make it possible.