This week, President Trump escalated trade tensions by imposing a 25 per cent tariff on US imports from Canada and Mexico, before pausing the tariff rise for both countries until 2 April. The 25 per cent tariff was anticipated, as in February the US President had already paused import tariffs on goods such as cement.

Up to 27 per cent of US cement imports come from Mexico and Canada, according to the PCA. This accounts for seven per cent of the USA's total cement consumption. Some or much of this volume would need to be replaced if importers decide the tariffs are implemented in April.

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) warned that any disruption to cement imports resulting from the tariffs could delay major infrastructure projects and raise costs significantly.

Last minute reprieve welcomed
Trump now knows that retaliatory measures would be imposed by Canada and Mexico if he goes ahead with the import tariff rises. Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, was set to impose countermeasures but held back after a call with Trump secured a temporary tariff exemption under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). 

For Mexico, the US is the top destination for hydraulic cement exports, accounting for 93.2 per cent of total shipments, claims the Ministry of Economy.

US industry leaders also breathed a sigh of relief. In February, PCA CEO, Mike Ireland emphasised the importance of affordable cement: “The availability of affordable cement and concrete is vital to meet our country’s infrastructure needs and for the oil and gas sector’s expansion. Mexico and Canada play a crucial role in stabilising US supply, so we appreciate that the administration is open to negotiations and taking a flexible approach to implementing trade policy.”

However, this reprieve may be short-lived. If tariffs proceed, a trade war could follow, compounding cost pressures on an industry already burdened by rising production and energy expenses. Experts warn that the 25 per cent tariff would raise construction costs in the US, driving up prices for residential and commercial projects.

Cement production and capacity in the USA
The US lacks the immediate capacity to offset lost imports. At 124Mta, domestic capacity is constrained and new capacity is expensive to install, in part due to the burden of US environmental regulations, resulting in a dearth of new capacity in recent years.

Between 2016 and 2022, only 4.4Mta of new clinker was added, including National Cement’s 1.74Mta Ragland plant in Alabama (2022). More recently, Heidelberg Materials invested US$600m at its Mitchell cement plant in 2023 by opening the K4 project with a new preheater and kiln line, plus the addition of a new bagging facility at the plant in March 2024. Upcoming projects, such as CIMSA’s 0.6Mta greenfield grinding plant in Texas (4Q25) and Eagle Materials Inc’s 1.1Mta expansion at Laramie in Wyoming (2H26), are on the way but would not be sufficient to compensate for lost imports. 
 
What next?
The real losers are likely to be Mexico and Canada. It is more likely that other suppliers, such as Turkey, Greece or Vietnam, will step in and fill the void (see ICR April, forthcoming, for more commentary on US cement imports).

The alternative to imports is to increase domestic production, and Mike Ireland has indicated the cement industry’s readiness to respond: “The US cement industry would like to work with the Administration to address federal laws and regulations that prevent American cement companies from increasing production.”

Meanwhile, despite concerns, some industry leaders downplay the impact. Holcim CEO, Miljan Gutovic told Reuters in February: “I don’t really see any impact, because our business is a local business (in the US). We are producing locally, we are sourcing the equipment, the spare parts locally, so how is this going to affect us? I do not see it.”