Indian cement dealers expect volumes to decline 35-40%

Following the impacts of COVID-19, Indian cement dealers are expecting volumes for March to decline by 35-40 per cent YoY and April to be a wash-out, according to The Financial Express.

Volumes had been reportedly growing at 10-12 per cent YoY in the east, and 4-5 per cent YoY in the west and central regions. However, cement dispatches have stopped since 21 March and all major cement plants are now shut. Volume loss from the nationwide lockdown is estimated to be around 40 per cent in March and 60 per cent in April.

Once the lockdown is over (currently set at 15 April), it is expected that it would take another 10-15 days before construction activity normalises. It would also take 2-3 days to fully ramp up cement plant production. Normal volumes are thus likely only from May, assuming the lockdown ends as scheduled. Therefore, volumes for the Jan-March 2020 quarter may decline by 8-10 per cent YoY.

Dealers would only be holding 3-4 days of inventory, while some stock-transfer inventories are stuck outside state borders.