PCA releases winter US regional cement consumption forecasts

The PCA Market Intelligence Group has released its cement consumption and  construction spending forecasts in the USA. 

Northeast
The Northeast has been hit hard by COVID-19, leading to cement consumption declining by a projected 0.6 per cent in 2020 and PCA Market Intelligence projects further decline in 2021 by nearly one per cent. The Middle Atlantic was down nearly four per cent in 2020. However, the East North Central and New England were up 0.7 and 2.8 per cent, respectively.

In the Middle Atlantic, public cement consumption is projected to decline 0.4 per cent in 2021 on top of a 1.9 per cent decline in 2020. The Northeast is generally expected to lag behind national trends in public cement consumption given state fiscal conditions and the characteristics of the region.

Southeast
Cement consumption in the South Atlantic census division has been positive thanks to positive in-migration fuelling housing constructions. The PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption to grow by three per cent in 2021.

Demand in the East South Central census division is led by strong migration into Alabama and Tennessee as well as robust new home construction, resulting in a forecast 3.7 per cent increase in consumption in 2021. Demand from the logistics and distribution sector in Tennessee will also drive cement consumption. 

West
After a flat market in the Pacific region in 2020, PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption will grow 0.9 per cent in 2021. California finished the year with growth, while Washington – despite strong gains in the second half of the year – saw a decline in cement consumption in 2020. Oregon had recorded double-digit gains in cement consumption in four of the five years going into 2020 but saw a steep decline as cement intensities normalised.

The Mountain region led the US in growth (around 10 per cent) in 2020. However, Nevada has high exposure to leisure and hospitality while New Mexico and Wyoming are overly reliant on oil. PCA Market Intelligence expects the region to decline 1.3 per cent in 2021 as the commercial and public sectors are forecast to turn negative, while the robust housing market continues to grow.

Central
After a slight 2020 decline in the West South Central census division, PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption to grow 2.9 per cent in 2021. Excluding oil well cement, construction-related cement consumption grew 3.1 per cent in 2020. Near-term growth is expected to be driven primarily by residential construction as well as slow, but steady recovery in oil-well cement demand along with continued support from the public sector.  

The West North Central census division cement demand is expected to be flat for 2021 following an expansion of 7.2 per cent in the previous year. Despite the lack of growth, the region is expected to maintain levels of cement demand not seen since 2006.