Vietnam exports to dip as China weakens

Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports are expected to record an annual drop of 1.5 and two per cent YoY, respectively, to 45Mt in 2022-23, according to VNDirect Securities. This is being blamed on lower demand from China. Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports have surged since China was forced to close many of its factories due to environmental problems and a shortage of power for production in 2017-21.

The figure reached 46Mt in 2021, marking a 20 per cent uptick YoY and triple the figure reported in 2016. In 2021, China accounted for around 35 per cent of Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports. However, a weakening of China’s civil real estate sector, which makes up 30-35 per cent of its cement consumption, is forecast to affect the country’s demand for cement this year.

Export tariffs for clinker are due to double to 10 per cent from January 1, 2023, with the aim of minimising shipments of minerals. However, this hike will insignificantly affect Vietnam’s clinker exports as the country is facing a glut of such product, says VNDirect Securities.