Due to many competing factors, Pakistan's cement industry will likely see lukewarm sales in 3QFY23-24 (January-March 2024). The holy month of Ramadan will begin on 11 or 12 March and may exhibit weak cement demand for about 30 days.
According to AKD Research, industry sales in the current quarter (3QFY23-24) are expected to remain subdued owing to election activity, Ramadan, Eid festivities and inclement weather conditions. Meanwhile, for the full fiscal year, the analyst expects local sales to remain flat YoY at ~40Mt. However, improved exports can bring total cement sales for FY23-24 to 45Mt (up 2-2.5 per cent YoY). With increased retention prices, profitability will remain higher during the financial year.
Moreover, cement prices are still holding ground, with current average prices hovering at PKR1234/bag (US$/4.42bag), up 11 per cent YoY. However, the recent axle load implementation has hurt industry sentiments and will increase dispatch costs.
