Indian cement demand continues apace but undersupply looms

Indian cement consumption rose 7.9 per cent YoY in 2023, amounting to 418Mt, according to ICR Research. Per capita consumption increased to 293kg in 2023, up from 273kg a year earlier, but is still well below average global per capita consumption of 414kg, suggesting the possibility for strong demand growth. 

India's strong demand fundamentals are reminiscent of those of China in the decades prior to 2010. India is undergoing rapid social and economic development. By 2030, the country is forecast to have 1.04bn working age people, unleashing the consumption power of a young population towards discretionary expenditure and demand for housing. As well as house building, major infrastructure projects are driving construction. 

Meanwhile, Indian cement production expanded 8.5 per cent YoY in the first quarter of 2024, amounting to 116.86Mt, up from 107.73Mt in the same period of 2023, according to ICR Research. Production grew 7.8 per cent YoY for 2023 and annual growth has averaged 6.2 per cent since 2020.

While cement production is expected to ramp up to meet demand, undersupply issues are becoming more of a consideration. India’s production surplus has been narrowing steadily since 2019 and slipped to just 31,000t last year, according to ICR calculations. At the same time, total imports (cement plus clinker) rose 9.7 per cent YoY in 2023, while total exports contracted 28.2 per cent YoY.