Oil prices recovered to US$74.50/bbl from US$70 on 20 September 2024, supported by OPEC+ and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Coal fell on lower oil prices while gas remained in the US$105-120 range. Meanwhile, petcoke was under pressure from China’s potential ban and as petcoke slides, discounts are very high.
On 20 September 2024 the discount for 6.5 per cent sulphur petcoke FOB sold at US$51 is 62 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$107 in the 4Q24. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent petcoke contract sold at US$58 is at a discount of 46 per cent when compared with API2 coal sold at US$112 in the 4Q24.
Coal FOB price trend, January 2010-20 September 2024: API 4 Richards Bay 6000kcal/kg (black),
6.5% sulphur USGC 40HGI (red) and 4.5% sulphur USGC 40HGI (blue)
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to move within the US$48-58 range with resistance at US$58, US$68, US$75, US$95, US$105, US$115 and US$135. Support is at US$50, US$48 and US$40 with multi-year support at US$40. For 2024 a broad range of US$45-115 is forecast.
Freight prices were slightly higher but FOB rates continued to fall.
