Fluctuations in TTF gas prices and coal have been the main factors driving the market, where prices have now been ranging between EUR60-66.
The US election result is expected to put short-term pressure on green projects while the market awaits the direction of US policy in the next few years. Will this be a repetition of 2016, with the US leaving the Paris Agreement, or will there be an increased focus on fossil fuels, alongside green projects?
Speculators have stayed away from the long-term market, which is now trading substantially lower than the forecast EUR120 -130 for the 2030+ period.
The European cement sector raised the suggestion of having earmarked support from the EU Commission, based on the sector’s EU ETS payments, replacing complicated innovation fund measures, despite cement projects having been rewarded this year.
The trading range is seen at EUR62-68/t.
Long-term prices for 2030 have slipped from EUR81 to EUR78.
The current (Dec24) contract is four per cent lower when compared with ICR’s previous issue at EUR63.50.
The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2024 price rose by two per cent to GBP38.20 (EUR46) and is now at a 28 per cent discount compared to the EU-ETS price.
Brannvoll ApS has issued its forecast for 2025, projecting a price range between EUR60-80 for the Dec25 contract, with an expected average of around EUR72.
