November saw a rise in the EUA prices, mostly driven upwards by higher gas prices, as coal burning led to higher emissions and as the compliance buying increased. The market was testing EUR70, but a fall in gas prices and funds going from Dec 2024 to Dec 2025 drove the prices lower, maintaining the range of EUR65-70. Investors and speculators cut short positions towards year end, adding to upwards pressure.
The markets are now awaiting the effect from CBAM, which will lead to new ETS markets coming into play. Türkiye is expected to launch its market within the next year, giving the sectors an opportunity to trade and reduce the impact from CBAM.
The European cement sector has raised the proposal to receive earmarked support from the EU Commission, based on the sector’s EU ETS payments, replacing complicated innovation fund measures.
The wider trading range is EUR64-70/t. Long-term prices for 2030 advanced to EUR83. The current (Dec24) contract is EUR68, up seven per cent from the previous issue.
The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2024 price fell to GBP36.50 (EUR42) and is now at a 38 per cent discount compared to the EU-ETS price.
Brannvoll forecasts a EUR60-80 range in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR72.
