Coal has dropped below the US$100 mark as the energy complex fell. The oil price declined due to increased US supply while OPEC supported the oil prices ranging between US$70-80/bbl. President Trump has promised to increase US oil supply to the markets.
Meanwhile, petcoke continues to rally in February with discounts now falling into the expensive zone towards coal. Russian coal is becoming very competitive.
Indian and Chinese buyers are returning to the petcoke market, driving prices higher as freight prices slip.
On 23 February the discount for 6.5 per cent sulphur petcoke FOB sold at US$83 is 29 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$94.00 in the 2Q25. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent petcoke contract sold at US$101.50 is at a discount of 24 per cent when compared with API2 coal sold at US$97.00 in the 2Q25.
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to move within the US$80-95 range with resistance at US$95, US$105 and US$115. Support is atUS$80, US$75, US$68, US$58, US$50, US$48 and US$40 with multi-year support at US$40. For 2025 a broad range of US$50-75 is forecast.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
