PCA releases Spring Forecast for US demand

USA-based Portland Cement Association (PCA) has recently presented its annual Spring Cement Consumption Forecast, predicting an increase in cement consumption for 2021 and 2022 in the country.

"Remarkably, US cement consumption recorded two per cent growth during 2020. It is remarkable because COVID-19 exerted a terrible toll on the economy. Consumers bunkered down; states enacted rigid lockdowns. Real GDP declined to a rate not matched since 1946 as the economy transitioned from war time to peace time," said Ed Sullivan, senior vice president and chief economist. "Nearly 9.5m fewer jobs now exist compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. Many businesses did not survive the threat. And yet through all of this, cement consumption grew."

Mr Sullivan noted that, while major storms resulted in a weak start to 2021, it is likely that cement consumption growth will match or exceed last year’s performance. Record-low mortgage rates prompted strong gains in 2020 single family construction and the low rates are expected to remain in place throughout 2021. Non-residential declines are expected to continue this year and next, but the drag on overall growth is expected to lessen.

The most significant long-term impact on cement demand is expected to be the proposed US$2.2trn, eight-year infrastructure programme. If the Biden administration’s proposal passes as is, it could contribute more than 7Mta to cement consumption but also contains more than US$1.2trn in low or no cement-intensive projects.