By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
Since ICR’s most recent energy report, the energy complex remains in range, awaiting the impact of sanctions on Russia.
Oil is down on the release of 240mbl from the Strategic Petroleum (SPR) in the US and EIA countries, ranging between US$95-115. EU sanctions on Russian coal from August 2022 are driving coal higher.
High-sulphur (6.5%, 40HGI) FOB petcoke price, historical view 2006-22: expected range US$165-200. Resistance at
US$200, 215, 235 and 250, while support to be found at US$175, 155 and 115. Multi-year support at US$35.
Petcoke is sharply down from all-time high with increased supply and weakening demand due to price levels. There is potential for further decline as freight rates are rising. Petcoke is not in the cheap zone.
Steam coal and petcoke FOB prices - historical view 2007-22
The discount for petcoke (6.5 per cent sulphur) FOB sold at US$180.50 (compared with API4 3Q22 coal at US$295), is 51 per cent. The discount for petcoke (6.5 per cent sulphur) CIF ARA sold at US$235 (compared with API2 3Q22 coal at US$305), is 43 per cent.
