By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
Since ICR’s most recent energy report, coal prices are rising due to supply disruptions and a colder winter in Europe. Russian discounts are still in place but reflect the rising costs of Russian producers. Oil is falling on fears of a new Chinese lockdown and demand destruction in the EU leading to lower growth.
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Steam coal and petcoke prices FOB
Petcoke prices are stable as buyers from China and India are on hold, and discounts have fallen since the highs in autumn. The high-sulphur (6.5 per cent S) petcoke FOB contract is currently at US$136, with an expected trading range of US$125-150. Resistance is to be found at US$155, 180 and 215, while support is around US$125, 115, 100 and 85. Multi-year support is found at US$36.
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High-sulphur petcoke (6.5%) 40HGI FOB USGC -
historical view 2007-22
The discount for 6.5 per cent S petcoke FOB sold at US$136 is at 52 per cent when compared with 4Q22 API4 coal sold at US$226. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent S petcoke contract sold at US$1159.50 is at a discount of 46 per cent, when compared with 4Q22 API2 coal sold at US$237.
Freight rates stabilised with the USGC-ARA contract at US$23.5.