December EUA prices dropped sharply during February and March, now testing the long-term uptrend in the range of EUR65-68.
The fall in gas and coal prices combined with massive focus in the EU on competitiveness in EU talks, has driven funds and speculators from long to short.
The new Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus initiatives will look to support heavy industry with some rumours of lifting the CBAM. However, the EU is expected to maintain a firm stand on CBAM but with regulatory easing for small amounts of carbon importers. cembureau and other industry associations have been welcoming the initiatives but also warned against delaying the implementation of CBAM.
The EUA trading range is seen higher towards EUR74-84/t (US$76.35-86.66/t) while long-term prices for 2030 advanced by EUR7 to EUR95/t.
The front (Dec 25) contract fell sharply by 15 per cent to EUR68.50/t when compared with previous issue of ICR.
The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 contract collapsed by 20 per cent to GBP 39 (EUR46.50). Brannvoll forecasts a range of EUR65-85 in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR75.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
