Pakistan's cement industry has recorded a YoY contraction of 16.82 per cent during November and 21.78 per cent in five months (July – November 2022) of the current FY2022-23. Cement dispatches/sales were disrupted due to a host of factors, including increased fuel prices, overall economic slowdown, flood impacts in the southern region, political unrest and multiple hikes in interest rates. The government increased interest rates last week by one per cent to 16 per cent. This will also dent dispatches and the top line of cement firms in months to come.
According to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA), cement dispatches in November declined to 4.009Mt against 4.820Mt during the same month of last fiscal year. Out of this total, local cement dispatches were 3.862Mt compared to 4.125Mt in November 2021, marking a decline of 6.38 per cent. Exports also fell, down by 78.76 per cent as volumes reduced from 695,779t in November 2021 to 147,757t in November 2022.
In November 2022, northern-based cement mills dispatched 3.267Mt of cement, down 7.31 per cent against 3.525Mt in November 2021. Southern-based mills shipped 742,158t of cement during November 2022, 42.71 per cent less than the 1.296Mt seen during November 2021.
Northern-based cement mills dispatched 3.163Mt cement in domestic markets in November 2022, marking a decline of 8.83 per cent against 3.470Mt in November 2021. Southern-based mills posted 698,225t of cement in local markets during November 2022, 6.6 per cent higher than the 654,983t recorded during November 2021.
Exports from northern-based mills increased by 87.97 per cent as the quantities rose from 55,234t in November 2021 to 103,824t in November 2022. Exports from the south fell 93.14 per cent to 43,933t in November 2022, compared to 640,545t during the same month last year.
Cumulative dispatches in 5MFY23
During the 5MFY23, Pakistan’s total cement dispatches (domestic and exports) were 17.883Mt, 21.78 per cent lower than the 22.861Mt dispatched during the same period in the last fiscal year. Domestic dispatches during this period were 16.354Mt against 20.008Mt in the previous year, down 18.26 per cent. Export dispatches were also 46.4 per cent less YoY as volumes reduced to 1.529Mt from 2.853Mt.
Northern-based mills dispatched 13.566Mt cement domestically during the 5MFY23, showing a reduction of 19.18 per cent from 16.786Mt during July-November 2021. Exports from the north increased by 1.48 per cent to 523,647t during July-November 2022, compared with 516,003t exported during the same period last year. Total dispatches by northern-based mills fell by 18.57 per cent to 14.089Mt during the first five months of the current financial year, from 17.302Mt in the corresponding period a year ago.
Domestic dispatches by southern-based mills during July-November 2022 were 2.788Mt, representing a reduction of 13.47 per cent over the 3.222Mt of cement dispatched during the same period of the last fiscal year. Over the same period, exports from the south declined by 56.97 per cent to 1.005Mt from 2.337Mt.
Total dispatches by southern-based mills contracted by 31.76 per cent to 3.794Mt during the first five months of the current financial year, from 5.559Mt in the year-ago period.
A spokesman from APCMA said that the State Bank must allow the opening letter of credit for renewable energy projects needed to reduce energy costs and move away from expensive imported fuel (the government has banned the import of plants and other parts for the last six months). With the start of the winter season, gas supplies are also facing interruptions compelling the use of costly furnace oil, thereby increasing the cost of production, another point of concern. He added that the government must accelerate development activities besides ensuring political stability. This would boost output in 40 construction-related sectors.
