Petcoke prices rising on growing demand while coal is falling as supply increases

By Frank O. Brannvol, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark

lAs China reopens, oil is finding support, seeing a recovery in oil prices to surpass the US$85 mark. The warm winter in Europe and lower gas prices are taking off the pressure for demand in the region. However, Russia’s discount is still in place for countries that do not sanction Russian gas supplies (China, India and Turkey).

Meanwhile, coal prices are falling as supply increases and demand is dropping as the fear of recession impacts markets. The price of API4 coal is at US$171.

With the return of Indian buyers and the US weather and maintenance leading to a drop in supply, petcoke prices are also rising. The 6.5 per cent S petcoke FOB contract sold at US$131 while the 6.5 per cent S petcoke CIF ARA contract sold at US$143. Resistance is to be found at US$145, 180 and 215, while support is around US$125, 115, 100 and 85. Multi-year support is found at US$36.

Steam coal and petcoke prices FOB - historicl view 2009-23

The discount for 6.5 per cent S petcoke FOB sold at US$131 is at 39 per cent when compared with 2Q23 API4 coal sold at US$171. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent S petcoke contract sold at US$143 is at a discount of 27 per cent, when compared with 2Q23 API2 coal sold at US$165.


In terms of freight rates, a sharp downturn is supporting FOB prices with the USGC-ARA price now at US$18.50.