Cement dispatches eroded in April due to Ramzan and Eid

According to Topline Securities, Pakistan’s total cement sales in April 2023 are expected to fall by 25-29 per cent MoM to reach 2.7-2.9Mt, with local dispatches likely to be down by 28-32 per cent MoM, due to the Eid holidays, economic slowdown and muted construction activity during Ramadan. All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) is yet to release official data on cement dispatches (domestic and overseas) for April 2023 and the 10MFY22-23. 

Total cement dispatches in April 2023 are expected to decrease by around 19-23 per cent YoY, with local transmissions likely to be down by 28-32 per cent mainly due to a severe hike in interest rates, increasing cost of construction and  political instability discouraging investors in the construction sector. 

In the 10MFY22-23, industry cement sales are expected to fall by 18 per cent YoY with local sales posting a 17 per cent YoY decline.

Exports during April 2023 will likely increase by 175 per cent YoY and decline by two per cent MoM to clock in at 0.43Mt. In the 10MFY22-23, export sales are expected to decrease 26-30 per cent YoY, due to the global economic slowdown and uncompetitive export prices due to higher domestic production costs.

Industry capacity utilisation during April 2023 is anticipated to total 44 per cent, with a 10MFY22-23 average of around 58 per cent.

This takes average daily sales in the northern and southern regions to 85,00tpd and 18,000tpd, respectively.

As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statics (PBS), cement retail prices in April 2023 averaged PKR1102/bag (US$3.88) in the north, a minor increase from March 2023. In the south, average cement prices reached PKR1166/bag, with an increase of PKR8/bag from March 2023.