Provisional dispatches data show a mixed trend in June 2023
All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) is yet to release overseas and local cement dispatch data. Local cement sales are expected to grow by two per cent MoM in June 2023, but down 16 per cent YoY in the FY22-23 (July 2022-June 2023), according to a local research house.
Topline Securities said Pakistan’s total cement sales in June 2023 are expected to increase by two per cent MoM, reaching 4Mt. Similarly, local dispatches are also anticipated to rise by two per cent MoM to 3.5Mt. The limited growth can be attributed to lower working days due to the Eid holidays. This takes the average daily sales of the sector to 135,000td in June 2023, Topline's analysts estimated.
Total cement dispatches in June 2023 are expected to be down around 23 per cent YoY, with local dispatches likely down by 30 per cent YoY. This decline is attributed to the overall economic slowdown. This takes the full-year FY22-23 cement industry sales to fall by 16 per cent YoY with local sales also posting a decline of 16 per cent YoY.
Exports
Exports during June 2023 are expected to increase by 100 per cent YoY and seven per cent MoM, reaching 0.57Mt mainly due to a 10 per cent decline in average coal prices during June 2023. It is worth noting that the decline in coal prices in recent months has made exports viable once again and experts anticipate that the upward trend in exports will continue.
In FY22-23, export sales are expected to decline 13 per cent YoY due to the global economic slowdown and uncompetitive export prices as a result of higher domestic production costs.
Utilisation and price trends
Industry utilisation during June 2023 is anticipated to clock in at 59 per cent, with a full-year FY22-23 average of around 54 per cent. As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statics (PBS), cement retail prices in June 2023 averaged PKR1123/bag (US$3.92/bag) in the north, an increase of PKR30/bag from May 2023. In the south, average cement prices clocked in at PKR1166/bag, with no change from May 2023.
