Despite an “unstoppable” shift towards clean energy, demand for fossil fuels is still far too high to keep within the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C goal. That is just one of the findings of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) ’World Energy Outlook 2023’ report just released.
The report describes an energy system in 2030 that includes almost 10x as many electric cars on the road, solar PV generating more electricity than the entire US power system does currently, the share of renewables in the global electricity mix nearing 50 per cent, compared to 30 per cent today, heat pumps and other electric heating systems outselling fossil fuel boilers globally, and 3x as much investment going into new offshore wind projects than into new coal and gas-fired power plants. But will this be enough?
“All of those increases are based on the current policy settings of governments around the world. If countries deliver on their national energy and climate pledges on time and in full, clean energy progress would move even faster,” says the report. “However, even stronger measures would still be needed to keep alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5˚C.”
Bending the emissions curve onto a path consistent with 1.5˚C remains possible but very difficult, warns the IEA. The costs of inaction would be enormous, despite the impressive clean energy growth based on today’s policy settings, global emissions would remain high enough to push up global average temperatures by around 2.4˚C this century, well above the key threshold set out in the Paris Agreement.
The report goes on to propose a global strategy for getting the world on track by 2030 that consists of five key pillars: tripling global renewable capacity; doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements; slashing methane emissions from fossil fuel operations by 75 per cent; innovative, large-scale financing mechanisms to triple clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies; and measures to ensure an orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels, including an end to new approvals of unabated coal-fired power plants.
“Every country needs to find its own pathway, but international cooperation is crucial for accelerating clean energy transitions,” said Dr Fatih Birol, executive director at the IEA. “In particular, the speed at which emissions decline will hinge in large part on our ability to finance sustainable solutions to meet rising energy demand from the world’s fast growing economies. This all points to the vital importance of redoubling collaboration and cooperation, not retreating from them.”
