By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
The price of coal declined after the Israel-Gaza war premium was taken out and oil also moved down.
Petcoke saw downward pressure by coal with discounts falling. As a result, discounts on both FOB and ARA contracts are now in the lower part of the neutral range.
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to continue in the US$80-95 range with resistance at US$95, US$105, US$115 and US$135. Support is at US$80, US$68 and US$55 with multi-year support at US$37. For 2024 a broad range of US$70-115 is expected.
Coal declined, leading to a drop in petcoke-coal discounts (20 November 2023)
The discount for 6.5 per cent S petcoke FOB sold at US$87 is at 36 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$108 in the 1Q24. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent S petcoke contract sold at US$113 is at a discount of 16 per cent, when compared with API2 coal sold at US$107 in the 1Q24. Freight rates are increasing with the USGC-ARA rate at US$26.
