By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
In 2023 EU verified emissions showed a 15.5 per cent fall from 2022, based on a 24 per cent drop in power generation emissions due to lower demand. Energy intensive industries emitted seven per cent less YoY as a result of reduced production. The aviation sector increased its emissions 10 per cent YoY as the industry recovered from the COVID-19 impact. The total number of emissions fell from 1.3bnt to 1.1bnt in line with forecasts and did not lead to significant price changes. On a global level, the story shows an opposite trend: a new all-time high of 37.4bnt, up 1.1 per cent YoY.
The EUA December 2024 contract (Dec24) is still awaiting the outcomes of the European Parliament and US presidential elections.
EUA front-year contract, June 2020-April 2024
Long-term prices for 2030 remain at EUR75, putting pressure on many long-term renewable projects.
The uptrend from 2020 was broken when Dec24 fell below EUR65 – a reversal over this level is needed.
The current Dec24 price is at EUR61, up three per cent to an expected range of EUR58-66. The UK Allowance December 2024 (UKA) is unchanged at GBP36 (EUR41) and remains stable at 32 per cent discount to the EUA.
Brannvoll ApS lowered the forecasts for 2024 to range between EUR55-95 with an average of EUR80 for the Dec24 contract.
