The World Cement Association (WCA) has published a white paper authored by its CEO, Ian Riley, analysing the long-term outlook for global cement and clinker demand. The report challenges prevailing forecasts, projecting a significant decline in demand for cement by 2050 and offering actionable insights for industry stakeholders navigating the transition to a low-carbon future.
Titled “Long-Term Forecast for Cement and Clinker Demand”, the white paper highlights pivotal changes driven by decarbonisation, technological advancements, and market dynamics. Key findings include:
· Global cement demand is likely to decline to 3bnta by 2050, far below existing forecasts.
· Clinker demand, the main source of CO2 emissions in cement production, is expected to decrease even more steeply, reaching 1.5bnta by 2050.
· The need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) will consequently be reduced, impacting investment and policy priorities.
“The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. As we move towards a decarbonised future, understanding the true demand for cement and clinker is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies, and investments align with reality. This white paper aims to provide industry leaders and policymakers with the clarity needed to plan effectively and sustainably”, explains Ian Riley.
The report also examines disruptive factors such as alternative materials, supply chain optimisation, and clinker-free technologies, which are reshaping demand patterns. By outlining three potential scenarios, it helps to provide a roadmap for stakeholders to adapt to varying degrees of change and seize opportunities for innovation.
The WCA invites its members and the broader industry to engage with the white paper’s findings and come together to collaborate on sustainable solutions for the challenges ahead.
