December EUA prices were up due to higher TTF gas prices and an illiquid market in the holidays. Coal burning led to higher emissions and compliance buying increased. As no actions took place, the price was supported and reached a 10-month high of EUR76.50/t.
The markets are braced for the possible US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and with analysts expecting global emissions to rise again in 2025, are expecting an increased political focus. In addition, speculators have gone long in December.
The European cement sector has lobbied the EU Commission for financial support, based on the sector’s EU ETS payments.
The trading range is EUR65-80/t while long-term prices for 2030 advanced to EUR88/t. The current (Dec 25) contract is EUR74.50, up nine per cent from the previous issue. Meanwhile, the UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 price fell to GBP34.50 (EUR41) and is now at a 35 per cent discount compared to the EU-ETS price.
Brannvoll forecasts a EUR60-80 range in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR72.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
