oal remained in the lower end of the US$105-125 range amid good supply. However, an expected increase of supply from the US following the regime change is driving the oil price down. OPEC is supporting prices of US$70-80.
Petcoke continued its rally from December based on its discount to coal with lower discounts now seen. While discounts to coal have been falling, petcoke still offers good value. Indian and Chinese buyers have been seen to return to the market. Meanwhile, no Chinese ban has been implemented with the question arising if heavy industry will remain free from any such ban.
On 22 January the discount for 6.5 per cent sulphur petcoke FOB sold at US$73 is 48 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$105.00 in the 1Q25. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent petcoke contract sold at US$93.00 is at a discount of 34 per cent when compared with API2 coal sold at US$112.00 in the 1Q25.
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to move within the US$68-78 range with resistance at US$75, US$95, US$105 and US$115. Support is at US$68, US$58, US$50, US$48 and US$40 with multi-year support at US$40. For 2025 a broad range of US$45-70 is forecast.
