USG Supramax market skyrocketing as demand/supply plays in owners’ favour and congestion impacts Panama Canal

By Brannvoll ApS, Denmark

USG Supramax/Ultramax market remained healthy during the month with rates rising above previous issue’s levels as tonnage for November dates appeared tight, while demand remained healthy. The strong segment in this area resulted in vessels ballasting from across the basin. Rates considerably increased throughout the month for all directions.

There is a further increase in downtimes passing the Panama Canal. Market players increasingly prefer shipments via the Suez Canal to facing a more than three-week waiting period in the Panama Canal.

Freight rates for transportation of a Supramax-lot of petcoke from Houston to ARA ports with spot laycans are at US$29.50/t on average. Deals for delivery of 50,000t of petcoke from Houston to Iskenderun with spot laycans are discussed at around US$35.50/t on average. Shipping costs for delivery of a Supramax-lot of petcoke from USG to EC India are at US$64/t on average.

Supramax freight rates for petcoke from Houston, USA, March 2019-December 2023

The uptrend is likely to continue, and it seems to be safe to assume that rates in the USG will remain strong for the coming weeks. However, the pace of increase will almost certainly slow down amid excessive ballaster inflow from the Continent, Mediterranean, west Africa and North Coast South America.