The Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) of Pakistan has released cement export and production data for the July 2020-April 2021 (10 months) and July 2020-March 2021 (nine months) periods. It continues to post mixed trends in export and local production.
Export volumes increased during this period, but revenues remained thin in dollar terms, reflecting a weaker price market for cement and clinker. Meanwhile, local output increased driven by high local demands and enabled by capacity expansions.
AHL Research gives credit to the increase in northern mill exports, as they exported good volumes to Afghanistan and the south, as well as to the export of sufficient cargoes to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Export
Pakistan's cement industry earned US$225.1m of export revenue by delivering 6.624Mt of cement and clinker overseas in 10MFY20-21, compared to US$223.2m from 5.959Mt of exports in the year-ago period. The export data represents a meagre growth of 0.8 per cent on the export front in dollar terms but reflects the double-digit growth of 11.2 per cent in terms of volumes during this period, as reported by FBS.
In local currency terms, the export value increased by four per cent to PKR36.34bn (US$225.056m) from PKR34.96bn during this 10MFY20-21. Nevertheless, the cost per tonne fell from US$37.45/t in 10MFY19-20 to US$33.97/t in the July 2020-April 2021 period.
However, in April 2021 alone revenues contract to US$15.012m on the export of 377,016t from US$26.8492m on the export of 776,934t cement and clinker exports in March 2021, apparently due to COVID-19. The export trend represents a substantial fall of 44.1 per cent and 51.5 per cent in terms of value and quantity, respectively.
However, in the comparison period of April 2020, when exports stood at US$13.13m on the shipments of 366,849t of commodities, exports grew by 14.3 per cent in value and 2.8 per cent in quantity, YoY.
Production in 9MFY21
The Large Scale Manufacturing Industries Index (LSMI) sees a growth trend in July 2020-March 2021 in Pakistan. The latest data released by PBS suggests that LSMI output, including cement, during 09MFY21, witnessed an increase of nine per cent YoY and an increase of 22.4 per cent YoY during March 2021.
During this cumulative nine-month period of July 2020-March 2021, Pakistan's cement production increased by 25.1 per cent, YoY to 37.62Mt compared to 30.663Mt a year earlier. The upward trend in cement production was also observed in March 2021 alone, when production rose by 57.2 per cent to 4.711Mt versus 2.996Mt in the same month last year.
