Carbon price sees sharp falls, testing major support

The EUA price has been steadily falling in alignment with the lower energy complex. A rally towards EUR74 in mid-August, talking the market back in the long-term uptrend, was punctured as first oil then gas, and coal began drifting lower. Several hedge funds have also reduced long positions as the tone for green markets turned a slightly bearish as several P2X and hydrogen projects were delayed or closed.

EUA front-year contract, May 2021-September 2024

In addition, there have been no major political interventions and the markets are now challenging major support at EUR65-66. The trading range is seen at EUR65-75.

Long-term prices for 2030 have fallen to EUR82, down from EUR88. The current December 2024 (Dec24) price fell three per cent to EUR66.50.

The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2024 price rose to GBP42 (EUR50) and discount at to 25 per cent.

Brannvoll ApS maintains the forecast for 2024 to range between EUR55-95 with an average of EUR80 for the Dec24 contract.