New EU Commission continues green focus – market testing to major support levels, driven down by energy complex

The newly appointed EU Commission has a greener focus but also prioritises EU competitiveness. The Danish Commissioner for Energy and Housing could focus on energy savings in buildings, which would be a positive for the concrete value chain. Meanwhile, speculators have left the long-term market as several projects have been put on hold due to lower EUA prices. In addition, September was the compliance month for verified 2023 emissions, which has given some support for the market.

On the other hand, lower oil and gas prices drove down the market, which is now testing the critical EUR65/t level. The trading range is seen at EUR63-75/t.

EUA front-year contract, December 2021-October 2024

Long-term prices for 2030 have slipped from EUR82 to EUR81.

The current (Dec24) contract remains unchanged from publication in ICR’s previous issue at EUR66.50.

The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2024 price dropped by 11 per cent to GBP37.50 (EUR45), creating a 32 per cent discount compared to the EU-ETS price.

Brannvoll ApS has lowered its 2024 forecast range to EUR50-90, with an average of EUR75 for the December 2024 contract.